By Jeff Moss
July 28, 2011
DetroitSportsRag@gmail.com
As many of you already know, I am a total degenerate whose love for our local Detroit sports teams can only be rivaled by my obsession with thoroughbred horse racing.
I have literally been betting on horses and reading the Daily Racing Form since I was six years old and just yesterday morning I rearranged my work schedule around watching the much anticipated Frankel/Canford Cliffs race from Glorious Goodwood in Great Britian.
I am such a sicko when it comes to the “Sport of Kings” that I didn’t even place a wager on the race between the world’s two best milers, I just wanted to WATCH IT. It is the horse racing equivalent of going to a strip club and NOT getting a lap dance.
Anyway, one of the tools I use in handicapping horse races is I keep an eye dedicated to the tote board not dissimilar to Michael David Barrett obsessing over Erin Andrews.
The minute one race ends, I immediately inspect the probable upcoming race’s Daily Double, Pick-3, Pick-4, Exacta and Win pool prices to find any anomalies divergent from the morning line odds.
For example, if a horse is 15-to-1 in the program, but yet is getting serious action in the last leg of a probable Pick-3, I immediately will consider that horse in my bets because he is obviously attracting the SMART MONEY.
Because as much as you can ascertain from perusing a horse’s past performances there is a lot to be said about odd fluctuations in the pari-mutuel pools because a lot of times the racetrack insiders who are privy to inside information know EXACTLY what they are punting on.
(And after those last three paragraphs, I will wait here while most of you grab your Derelict Gambling Lingo-to-English dictionary to comprehend what I am trying to write here. Back yet? Good.)
So, the reason I am bringing up this smart money discussion today is because there seems to be something really interesting going on at the Las Vegas sportsbooks in regards to the upcoming NFL season.
You see, when Vegas started taking 2011 NFL future wagers the Detroit Lions opened up at 75-1 to win their first Lombardi Trophy and 30-1 to make their first Super Bowl appearance.
Those have been pretty standard types of odds for the Lions over the years as Vegas doesn’t really offer much value for long shots. They figure a certain idiotic type of fan is going to stroll into their casino and bet on their HOME TEAM regardless of the odds just so they can idiotically tell their friends back home that they did so.
In the last few years the Lions have been 100 or 200-1 to win the Super Bowl when Vegas oddsmakers could have legitimately thrown out a 500,000-1 number and not worried one second that they were going to get burned™ (Danny Ocean.)
But something strange started occurring on the Lions action through the lockout. Bettors started placing wagers on the Lions to win the title and/or the NFC like they had Biff’s “Sports Almanac” from Back to the Future II and already knew the result.
The longtime gridiron losers saw their odds begin to plummet all across the Strip. After a few months the Lions Super Bowl odds were lowered to 40-1 based on all of the action. And while that movement was noteworthy, it was nothing to get really excited about.
But then came this news last week from Sin City. At the MGM sportsbook inside the emerald green “City of Entertainment”, the Detroit Lions are now an incredibly low 18 to freaking one to win Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis. 18 to 1.
And if that isn’t shocking enough, the team is 6 to 1 to win the NFC title!!!! The same odds to win the conference as the Falcons, Saints, Cowboys, Giants and Bears.
If a horse was getting this type of HEAVY action in a race that I was about to bet, I would have to be certifiably nuts or a glutton for punishment to ignore the trend.
And that kind of movement can’t be generated by a bunch of slapdicks or donkeys who are just betting the Lions because they are from Southeastern Michigan.
That is serious cash flowing in from big-time gamblers who are obviously more bullish on the Lions 2011 chances than most of us longtime Lions fans who probably won’t believe this team has any chance to do anything significant until after Sports Illustrated puts out their commemorative Super Bowl video, hat and magazine.
I am pretty sure most of us shell-shocked Lions fans who have been treated like a battered spouse for six decades won’t actually believe that they can win a Super Bowl until after Matthew Stafford’s “I am going to Disney World” commercial airs days after the game.
But the point of the previous 800 words isn’t meant to be some sort of inside Vegas gambling column. The real reason I am writing this column is because I am curious if we are missing something here in Detroit.
Are the Lions actually legitimate Super Bowl contenders like their odds suggest and we are just so jaded by ALL OF THE LOSING that we can’t see it?
Or are we just trying to remain relatively calm about the team’s prospects because:
A) We don’t want to get burned by expecting too much from this team that has burned us time and time again over the last 50 years.
B) We don’t want to look like a bunch of unsophisticated morons who are sitting down to a huge helping of Cornbread only to wash it down with a gallon of Kool-Aid.
But after spending 30 years of observing odds fluctuations and making assumptions based on that action, I am not about to ignore it now when it comes to the Lions.
From here on in, I am acting under the assumption that the Lions SHOULD make the postseason this year. If that is the prognosis of people gambling their hard earned money then that should be OUR expectation as well.
So all of this talk about the team still being a year or so away needs to stop. The columns by idiots like Chris “Officer Barbrady” McCosky that the team needs to cautiously approach free-agency because they aren’t close to a championship need to cease.
MARTIN MAYHEW NEEDS TO SPEND WHATEVER MONEY AT HIS DISPOSAL ($20 million or so?) TO SOLIDY THIS TEAM’S WEAKNESSES IN AN EFFORT TO WIN NOW!!!
Not next year or the year after that. This team needs to be aggressive on the open market right effing now.
Look, I watch a TON of NFL games every season. I watch every MNF, SNF and TNF game. On Sunday afternoon’s I have two-games on at all times plus the Red Zone Channel in my own personal downstairs sportsbook.
And even with all of that viewing I still have no DEFINITIVE idea who this team should pursue in free-agency. I have heard all of the usual suspects (Barnett, Joseph, Tulloch, Bulluck, etc.) and I am not about to pontificate on who Martin Mayhew should and shouldn’t sign.
But the organizational PHILOSPOPHY has to be one of winning now and in the next week I do not want to read about any pussy-footing around in the FA market.
Spend the cash that you have and spend it wisely and don’t overly agonize about the ramifications for the 2012 season.
We have waited long enough in this town and if a bunch of gamblers who are in-with-the-in™ (Danny Fox) believe that this team can contend now, THAT IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR ME. Go. For. It.
(Not to mention that the owner of the Tigers this week stated that he isn’t a “spring chicken” anymore and his message to his front-office is win this year. Guess what? He is FOUR FUCKING YEARS YOUNGER THAN THE LIONS OWNER.)
And one last piece of information Mr. Mayhew if you intend to ignore my advice and decide to play it safe and not go “All-In” right now.
Some of those guys who have lowered your team’s odds from 30-1 to 6-1 to win the NFC? Probably connected guys who do not have necks.
And as a former cornerback, I am sure you have a fond appreciation of your two knees.
I am just sayin’.