By Justin Spiro
spirojus@msu.edu
January 18, 2014
Last week was rough. After being banned from the DetroitSportsRag for the 43rd time, I was certain I would never return. Three days later I was back. So it goes at the DetroitSportsRag.
I have enjoyed the work the DSR has been churning out lately, but this place needs a different voice from time to time. It is time for Jeff Moss to drop the Chazz Palminteri one-man show and share the stage.
For those of you who don’t know me, congratulations.
I love gambling as a topic of discussion. The subject of gambling is interesting in all forms. Podcasts? Sign me up. Analytical articles about unique wagers? I am in.
And in honor of my first gambling winning streak since a 2nd grade Rock, Paper, Scissors tournament, I am launching the “DSR’s Official Gambling Column.” It has been years since the site’s creators had their pets pick games (yes, literally).
It is time.
I cannot guarantee the sustainability of this endeavor. My volatile relationship with Moss means I am one bad sports take away from him insulting my family and me posting a picture of Jerry Maguire and his goldfish on my way out the door. But in the meantime, I am looking forward to sharing tons and tons of winning picks with you. Tons.
I can make one promise. If my record is really bad, I will not be taking the Bill Simmons route. If you are unfamiliar with the thin-skinned Simmons approach, allow me to provide a step-by-step breakdown.
- Write a self-serving intro that opens by bragging about the length of column, even though 82% of the words are provided by reader e-mails.
- Make a joke about the awful record of the picks. “Billy Zima is in the house, and he is ready to lose again! Yeah!”
- Name drop a celebrity.
- Post a bunch of stupid and wholly irrelevant YouTube clips and bask in the glory of every loser in the universe commenting “SIMMONS!!!” on every video
- Name drop a celebrity.
- Make an extensive argument for both teams covering the spread before settling on one. That way he is either right, or he is wrong but can tell everyone on his podcast that he “just knew” the other team would win and “should have trusted his gut” based on all of the arguments he had made for the winner before ultimately choosing the loser.
- Name drop a celebrity
- Name drop a different celebrity
- Call Magic Johnson a “good friend”
- Post several e-mails from people clearly lying and fishing to receive the “Yup, these are my readers” designation before ultimately choosing the biggest of the lies.
That is pretty much it for Simmons these days. A bunch of humblebrags, just plain brags, and YouTube clips. He would make one helluva Huffington Post contributor.
The sworn followers of this guy are the worst. Anytime Simmons posts a YouTube clip, there is a stampede of losers rushing to post “Simmons!” in the comments section. These are the same people who love commenting “First!” after any Facebook update from Simmons.
Is anything better than these wannabes typing out long, elaborate e-mails to the nasally-voiced Simmons in the hopes of receiving mention in a column? Does anyone read the “Yup, these are my readers” e-mails and actually believe what these people are saying? I would venture to guess 90% of them are complete fabrications. Unless you believe every dude on earth is extremely popular, goes to Vegas four times a year, and has a wife that will do anything in bed while resembling a hotter version of Kate Upton.
The problem with Bill Simmons is his handling of success. He carved out a spectacular niche as a normal guy who loved sports. He was the anti-sportswriter. In many ways, other miserable fans were able to relate to him. Believe me, there was no bigger fan of “The Boston Sports Guy” than me.
Then Simmons became very popular. And next came the name drops and constant references to floor seats to games in Los Angeles.
This is a man who laments the misfortune of his sports teams. You know, the Patriots, Celtics, Bruins, and Red Sox. All of whom have won titles in the past decade. Yet Simmons still plays the role of the tortured fan. The guy has readers from Detroit and Cleveland yet has the nerve to complain about how the Patriots should have two MORE titles in this era.
It is the same card Mike Valenti plays. “The Yankees stink” was Valenti’s cry in April 2009. Yes, they won the World Series 6 months later. Valenti also whines about the New York Giants incessantly. He proudly boasted that he was “Giants free” 15 months after the biggest Super Bowl upset in history (Super Bowl XLII). I would argue Valenti is even worse than Simmons. At least Simmons has a national platform. John W. Creasy is on the DETROIT AIRWAVES and complains about the ineptitude of the New York Giants organization. NICE SELF-AWARENESS.
After the longest digression in the history of journalism, let’s get to the first of many picks.
San Francisco 49ers + 3.5
San Francisco 49ers ML + 165
Before the playoffs began, I placed a healthy wager on the San Francisco 49ers to win the Super Bowl at 8-1. It was not just about the perceived value. I have felt for some time now that the 49ers were going to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at season’s end.
San Francisco is the best team in the National Football League. The Seahawks are probably the 2nd best team and are playing at home, so this will be as big a challenge as any road team can face. Seattle has covered 68% of their home games since 2005, an insane number. They are 52-25-1 in that span. They are also 15-4 ATS against teams with a winning record. The trends are scary if you are on San Francisco.
These concerns aside, the 49ers also have impressive backing. They have only lost 2 of their last 15 games ATS. Jim Harbaugh is 11-1-1 ATS against teams with a win percentage above .700. While the overall trends slightly favor Seattle, there is plenty to like about the 49ers.
With both teams sporting eye-popping ATS numbers, handicapping this game is more dependent on old-school analysis and the eyeball test. Russell Wilson had a fantastic year overall but has been up and down the past several weeks. He struggled in both games against San Francisco this year, including a pitiful performance early (8-19, 142 yards) that was overcome by a profound rushing attack and swarming defense.
The 49ers know how to game plan for Wilson. He will not beat them. While Colin Kaepernick has had his ups and downs, his play the past month has been better than his counterpart in Seattle. This is a quarterback and coach league. San Francisco has the hotter quarterback and the better coach. Jim Harbaugh took his 40-point underdog Stanford Cardinal into the Coliseum and clowned Pete Carroll’s USC Trojans.
The finally healthy Michael Crabtree has been a significant addition to this 49ers team late in the season. Anquan Boldin has elevated his play in the postseason (8 catches, 136 yards last week) much like he did with the Ravens a year ago. This is a healthy team with more weapons than Seattle, which was the case even before the impactful Percy Harvin was ruled out for the Seahawks on Sunday.
The 49ers are a very good pick to win this game outright. As for the spread, getting more than a field goal is huge in a game between two great defensive teams. I strongly recommend taking the 49ers money line and with the 3.5 points in two separate bets, with the larger money going on the latter of the two.
I am going to the game with a guy named Gore. That’s gotta be a good sign.
49ers +3.5 is a winner. Go make some money. Gregg’s Guy is a real jerk.
ATS Record: 0-0
Money Line: No money yet, first bet, glad we’ve met, gotta jet
(You can follow Justin Spiro on Twitter @DarkoStateNews)