By Jeff Moss
DetroitSportsRag@GMail.com
May 2, 2014

The Kentucky Derby is this Saturday and a few people (Kevin and Gary Schultz) have asked me  to post my picks for this weekend’s big races from Churchill Downs. Today is Kentucky Oaks Day (the Oaks is the female equivalent of the Derby) so I will be posting my selections on here while live blogging the results.

There are 12 races this afternoon and the following grid provides you with my picks for each race.

I devoutly follow the Daily Racing Form’s Steve Crist’s “A-B-C” strategy for multi-race wagering so the selections are broken down in that fashion accordingly.  To make it simple, “A” picks are on every ticket. “B” selections are backups while “C” horses are basically protect my ass savers.

Anyway, if you are still reading you are probably thoroughly confused and really don’t give a fuck. So here is the grid …..

Now, here are the bets I plan on making starting with the fourth race. I will provide the cost of each bet and then later will update my ROI (Return on Investment.)

Race #4

ALL .50 Cent Pick 4 Wagers

11/3,4,5,6,/1,2,6,9/1,2,3,5,6,7,12 = $48
2,4,5,6,7,11,13/3,4,5,6/1,2,6,9/1,7,12 = $168
2,5,6,11,13/3,4,5,6/1,2,6,9/1,2,5,6,7,12 = $240

Total Bets = $408

Race #8

ALL .50 Cent Pick 4 Wagers

1,4,5,6,7,8,9,10/1,3,4,5,6,10/1,2,3,7,8/13 =  $120
1,4,5,7,8/1,3,4,5,6,10/1,2,3,7,8/13 = $75
1,4,5,6,7,8,9,10/3,4,5/1,2,3,7,8/13 = $60
1,4,5,7,8/3,4,5/1,2,3,7,8/13 = $37.50
1,4,5,7,8/3,4,5/1,2,3,7,8/4,9,13 = $112.50

Total Bets = $405 

Oaks/Woodford Reserve/Derby Pick-3

ALL $1 Pick 3 Wagers

13/1,5,6,7,8,10/4,5,13,15,20 = $30
13/1,10/4,5,13,15,20 (Repeat 5 times) = $50
13/1,10/5,15,20 (Repeat 5 times) = $30
13/1,10/5 (Repeat 25 times) = $50
13/1,5,6,7,8,10/5,15,20 (Repeat 2 times) $36
13/1,5,6,7,8,10/5 (Repeat 10 times) = $60
4,9,13/1,10/4,5,13,15,20 = $30
4,9,13/1,10/5,15,20 = $18
4,9,13/1,5,6,7,8,10/4,5,13,15,20 = $90

Total Bets: $394

Hopefully those will be all of the bets I make on Friday. But I doubt it. Check back here for any other plays and my live blog of the day’s action.

You can click here if you want the names of the horses to go with the above corresponding numbers.

11:55am Update: Well, the day started well for my handicapping as the early Pick 3 came 7/5/2. Unfortunately, I didn’t see much value in the sequence and decided not to bet it which only cost me about $300. Not a great start to the day.

12:28pm Update: A good start to the first actual BET I made today with #6 Layton Register winning a four-horse blanket photo finish. $27.40 to begin the Pick-4 is always a good thing. Of course, the 17-1 shot who ran second (#13 Transcend) would have been better but I am not complaining.  The first stakes race of the day is up next … the Grade I La Troienne for Fillies and Mares.

12:49pm Update: The favorite wins the first stakes race of the day as On Fire Baby motors home for Joe Johnson and Gary Hartlage. The chalk paid $5.20 and we are still alive in the Pick-4. Although the toughest race of the day IMO is coming up next …. the 5 furlong Turf Sprint. Need Ancil, Undrafted (owned by Broncos wide receiver Wes Welker,) Positive Side or Havelock to take the Grade 3 down.

1:33pm Update: The first loss of the day came at an inopportune time as Marchman sits right off the speed and easily wins the Turf Sprint. To make matters worse, I had the horse last month at 25 to 1 win he won a similar race at Keeneland. Oh well, time to figure out a Pick-5 bet.

1:41pm Update: Adding a Pick-5 caveman ticket:

1,2,5,6,7,12/4,5,7,8/3,4,5/1,2,3,7,8/13 = $180

2:23pm Update: Live into the Pick-5 with runaway winner Southern Honey. The late scratch of Restivity (#10) in the 9th race means I am now substituting Istanford (#7) on any Pick-4 tickets where I was originally using Restivitity.