By Karl Henkel
karlhenk89@GMail.com
July 15, 2016
After Michigan State’s steamrolling of Michigan in the fall of 2013, Spartans coach Mark Dantonio praised then-Wolverines coach Brady Hoke, saying he had “great respect” for Hoke, who at the time had a “pretty unbelievable” undefeated record at the Big House.
Of course Dantonio said that. The Spartans had just beaten Michigan for the fifth time in six meetings and the Wolverines were in the midst of a downward spiral from which Hoke would never recover. It’s very easy, especially in sports, to praise someone you do not fear or are not threatened by; Dantonio’s remarks were indirect dismissiveness at its finest.
And on that note, consider Buck Showalter’s praise of Brad Ausmus – comments that recently resurfaced as part of Detroit News sportswriter Chris McCosky’s midseason grade slideshow.
“He’s good,” said Showalter, manager of the American League East-leading Baltimore Orioles, in part. “And I wouldn’t tell you that if I didn’t think it.”
Ausmus is “good” as manager of the Detroit Tigers in the same way Hoke was “good” at Michigan. And by “good,” I mean showing little to no improvement during his tenure, which, mind you, kicked off with Showalter thoroughly outmanaging him in the 2014 American League Division Series.
It’s hard to believe it has been nearly two full years since that embarrassing opening-round exit. Harder to believe is that nearly two years later, Ausmus has not shown improvement when it comes to handling the pitching staff, specifically the bullpen. And for those who think otherwise, sit back, because there’s plenty of evidence to show.
Ausmus – handed a revamped bullpen this season and who actually has had a higher-performing starting pitching staff relative to the competition despite it consisting of the fifth-worst starter in baseball, Anibal Sanchez, and Mike Pelfrey, who has the worst WHIP among all qualified pitchers – has after two-and-a-half seasons still managed to show an unacceptable lack of urgency given his owner’s mandate to win a title and his $200 million roster of all-star-caliber talent.
And to make matters, worse, the dismissive Showalter is pulling the exact strings with his staff that Ausmus is failing to with his, and the result: the Orioles are leading their division and the Tigers are 6.5 games back.
Where’s the improvement?
The Kansas City Royals won the 2015 World Series thanks to an incredible bullpen that allowed manager Ned Yost to “shorten” games by pulling ineffective or tiring starters early in the game and riding a half-dozen stout arms the rest of the way.
The 2016 Tigers don’t have the shutdown bullpen of the 2015 Royals, but unlike the 2015 Tigers they do have a handful of arms capable of getting big outs.
Francisco Rodriguez has been lights-out, converting all but two saves in 26 chances; Shane Greene is throwing up a sub-1.00 WHIP and a 6:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio (bullpen stats only); Justin Wilson is posting respectable numbers and is among the league leaders in holds; and newfound left-handled escape artist Kyle Ryan — in limited action — has allowed just one in four inherited baserunners to score.
Despite an inconsistent Jordan Zimmermann and Sanchez’s ineptitude, the starting pitching staff is performing at a higher level relative to the competition than the 2015 staff. (And don’t compare 2015 and 2016 numbers without context. Offense is up in 2016, so relativity is key.)
So a higher performing starting staff and an improved back end of the bullpen should equal a considerable improvement in 2016, right?
Well, if you consider a 1.5 game improvement (Detroit was 44-44 at the all-star break in 2015 and 46-43 this year), despite adding a $100-million starting pitcher, three two bullpen arms, a borderline all-star left-fielder, a healthy Victor Martinez and the sudden existence of Nick Castellanos’ power “considerable,” you might want to stop reading.
Detroit’s “shortened” games
Ausmus has found a way to make Detroit the anti-Royals, shortening games in two simplistic ways. Either the offense bashes hits and blows teams out or gets curbstomped before the last call for beer sales.
Teams that get ahead – even as early as the first inning – win far more often than they lose. AL teams have an average winning percentage of .692 and the Tigers are at .765, meaning if they lead early, they win more often than most (helped by the fifth-best save percentage in the American League).
The same can be said about teams that get behind. AL teams, including the Tigers, have about a .320 win percentage when trailing after an inning.
This should come as no surprise. Score early, put the pressure on your opponent and operate from a position of strength.
What separates good teams from very good teams (and very good teams from great teams) is the ability to win games that are tied in the middle and late innings. And wouldn’t you know the Tigers are abysmal at turning tie games into late leads.
In fact, when tied after five innings, the Tigers have an incredibly putrid 1-8 record. Yes – 1-8. When tied. After five innings. If you combine Detroit’s record when tied after five, six, seven and eight innings, it’s an unfathomable 11-20.
Note: When looking at this particular stat, adding up the wins and losses when tied after specific innings won’t add up to the total number of wins and losses, because a team can be tied after multiple innings in one game.
What does this tell us? If the Tigers aren’t already ahead by the time the game becomes “official” they are a lost cause.
Even crazier is the Tigers have only been in these tied-late situations combined 31 times. The Orioles have been there 47 times. Every AL team with a .500 or better record except Kansas City has had more late-game opportunities to steal a tie game and none have a worse combined record than Detroit.
Ausmus’ inability to determine when to pull starters, insert relievers and balance rest and days off with in-game appearances has resulted in a black hole of opportunities, even in games where the Tigers are playing equal to their opponents.
Damning evidence
The most recent example of Ausmus’ struggles came July 4 against Cleveland, a team which the Tigers had failed to beat in nine previous meetings this season. Miraculously tied 3-3 after six – Daniel Norris left after 2-plus innings with an injury and Dustin Molleken and Alex Wilson bridged the gap to the late innings – Ausmus opted to send out Bruce Rondon for the seventh.
Rondon had pitched well following his extended stint at Toledo, but was at best the fourth-best available option given the need to, you know, actually beat the team you are chasing at least one time in a season.
Justin Wilson had pitched twice in the previous six days (once in the previous five), Greene three times in the past six days (and twice in the past three), while Rodriguez had pitched three times in the last six days (following an every-other-day pattern).
Though none had pitched the day prior, one could argue Greene and Rodriguez, who is old, needed an extra day of rest (though none of the three pitched a high-stress inning in the previous six days).
And with Jason Kipnis (a left-hander weak against left-handed pitching) and Francisco Lindor (a left-hander with a similar OPS versus both right- and left-handed pitchers), plus Mike Napoli, who ended up hitting the winning two-run homer (a right-hander with also a similar OPS versus both right- and left-handed pitchers), one could argue Justin Wilson was the correct choice in this scenario.
Justin Wilson did not pitch, the Tigers did not score and the Indians won their 10th straight against Detroit.
Justin Wilson did not pitch for three more days until coming in to hold a late lead July 7 against the Blue Jays.
Using your best arms
That night in Toronto, Justin Wilson was not sharp. He pitched 1.1 innings and departed with two outs and the bases loaded in the eighth inning, with Detroit clinging to a 4-3 lead.
With the red-hot Troy Tulowitzki due up for the Blue Jays, Ausmus decided that Alex Wilson was best suited to escape Toronto’s fourth bases-loaded situation of the night (Greene had already pitched earlier in the game).
Rodriguez, who had not pitched for four days and who was not even warming up in the eighth inning, was the only correct call in this situation.
Rodriguez did not pitch and would not pitch again until two days later. (Note: As of July 15, Rodriguez has appeared in one game, throwing 10 pitches, in 13 days, including the All-Star break. Hell of a way to use to your best relief pitcher – by keeping him on the bench – during a seven-game stretch against arguably the two best AL teams.)
Then, on the eve of the all-star break, Sanchez, who has alternated roles between being the Tigers worst starting pitcher and worst relief pitcher, got into a two-on, two-out jam in the fourth inning.
Josh Donaldson, the last batter a pitcher facing Toronto wants to see with runners in scoring position, was due up. Instead of lifting Sanchez, who – and I cannot reiterate this enough – is statistically the fifth-worst pitcher in baseball – Ausmus let him face Donaldson, who promptly hit a three-run bomb to put Toronto up 5-0.
This decision alone was enough to be discouraged about.
Sanchez got the third out of the fourth inning on five pitches and came back out in the fifth inning with nobo …
Wait, what? Ausmus pulled Sanchez? The same guy, who, five pitches earlier, on the ropes, having a terrible season and pitching in a game which you can literally use every reliever, was allowed to face the reigning AL MVP with runners in scoring position? With a chance to split a four-game series against one of the hottest teams in baseball – on their home turf?
Much of Ausmus’ pitching malfeasance centers around Sanchez, who regularly cannot work into the sixth inning (or third time through the order, whichever comes first) without getting completely obliterated – a trend that has progressed over the last three seasons. Sanchez has been allowed to pitch six or more innings in four of his 14 starts – and the Tigers have lost every one of those games.
Among the Ausmus-Sanchez screw ups:
- May 9 against Washington: Up 4-1 headed into the sixth, Sanchez allows two runs in the bottom of the inning, and then inexplicably is allowed to go out and start the seventh. He pitches to three batters in the seventh, an inherited runner scores to make it 4-4 and Washington walks it off in the ninth. By the way, this was their Tigers seventh consecutive loss. Zero. Sense. Of. Urgency.
- His very next start, May 14 against Baltimore: Sanchez throws five shutout innings and the Tigers lead 2-0. Sanchez then gets shellacked for three runs in the sixth after facing the heart of the Orioles lineup for the third time. Amazingly, Ausmus sends him out for the seventh, and Sanchez promptly allows a leadoff home run to extend the lead to 4-2. Tigers would lose 9-3, their fourth straight loss.
- To the earlier stat about Detroit’s putrid record when tied after five, Sanchez’s next start against Tampa. After allowing three runs in five innings, the Rays whack Sanchez around for two more in the sixth, snapping a 3-3 tie. That came despite Anibal only facing two the first two batters of the inning. And yes, you guessed it, third time through the order bit Sanchez in the ass again. Tigers lost that game, too, 7-5.
At some point – maybe even after two-plus seasons – a manager would start to notice a trend and attempt to head trouble off at the pass. Sanchez’s ineffectiveness has also negatively impacted the relievers who have had to come in and (try to) clean up his mess during innings he had no business ever starting. In 14 starts, he has left 13 men on base for other pitchers to attempt to strand and that includes five starts in which he unbelievably finished an inning he started, leaving no mess to clean up.
Respect?
Showalter is currently doing the very things Ausmus is not doing, including having a sense of urgency and winning consistently.
Showalter’s closer, when the situation calls for it, will enter the game before the ninth inning, and on three occasions has pitched multiple-inning saves. Zach Britton has entered a game in the eighth inning seven times in 38 appearances and has four times entered when the game is tied. Rodriguez has entered a game in the eighth inning one time in 33 appearances and just one time when the game was tied.
The Orioles have won seven – SEVEN – games this year after workhorse reliever Brad Brach (40 appearances) has entered a game (extra-inning appearances excluded) with either Baltimore tied or down by one run.
And Brach has done it in almost every potential inning a reliever can: one time he came in during the sixth, twice in the seventh, three times in the eighth and once in the ninth.
Meanwhile, Ausmus continues to raise the white flag by bringing in anyone but the big guns in games that are tied or in which the Tigers trail by a measly run. I mean, a lineup with so many home run threats ought to be able to run into one or two every now and then, right? Instead, less successful relievers allow the opponents to break the tie or extend their lead.
But compared to Brach, Justin Wilson, who has appeared in 37 games, has had four – FOUR – of those opportunities and the Tigers have gone on to win just one of those games. Hell, Mark Lowe, who hasn’t had a meaningful appearance since May, has even had four of those chances.
Alex Wilson has six – SIX – of those same appearances and the Tigers have won two of those. Remember, the comparison between two Wilsons isn’t the record, it’s the fact the lesser Wilson has gotten more opportunities in games where the team is tied or down by one run.
Showalter is making adjustments, thinking strategically. He has even yanked Ubaldo Jimenez, who is statistically worse than Sanchez, after fewer pitches recently compared to the rope he gave him to start the year, all in an effort to at least give his team a modicum of a chance to win when he pitches.
Ausmus, on the other hand, well, he’s bad. And I wouldn’t tell you that if I didn’t think it.
(You can follow the writer of this piece on Twitter @KarlHenk. The author formerly covered the automotive business for the Detroit News and currently is the new story development manager Ford Motor. Also, you can join in on the discussion of this article on Facebook by clicking here.)