By Justin Spiro
spirojus@GMail.com
@DarkoStateNews
August 24, 2015

The firing of Dave Dombrowski sent shockwaves throughout Major League Baseball. Speculation regarding the cause and timing of the mid-season firing was rampant, with many theories postulated but none verified. Three weeks later, we now have a clearer picture of why owner Mike Ilitch decided to terminate the contract of one of the league’s most respected executives.

A high ranking Tigers source has informed us that Ilitch laid out three specific reasons for ousting Dombrowski when discussing the move with his family. The first two are not entirely surprising, and were often mentioned as possible explanations in the wake of the firing. The third one caught us off guard.

Up first is the obvious. The Detroit Tigers were an expensive failure in 2015. Ilitch was already fed up with several years of coming close with no cigar. Our source said the octogenarian owner would have been enraged with anything less than a pennant this season. Being out of the playoff picture entirely was considered an unforgivable flop. Nothing too shocking there.

Ilitch’s second point of concern was Dombrowski’s future contract demands. Although no formal negotiation ever took place regarding an extension, Dombrowski had made it clear that he expected a substantial raise. The $35 million contract signed by Dodgers President Andrew Friedman was not considered a number Ilitch would have to match, but Dombrowski believed an extension without a raise would represent a significant underpayment given the market. Once again, nothing too shocking.

Here is where it gets interesting.

Rewind back to late October, 2013. When Brad Ausmus was pitched by Dombrowski as the successor to manager Jim Leyland, Ilitch was strongly against the move.

Ilitch gave Dombrowski a flat “no” when the idea of hiring Ausmus was initially brought to him, but Dombrowski was relentlessly insistent that the former catcher was the guy to finish what Leyland had started.

Ilitch likened hiring a rookie manager to “letting a child drive a Rolls Royce”, a reference to Ausmus’s inexperience and the Tigers’ bloated payroll. Meanwhile, Dombrowski was blown away by both Ausmus’s performance in his interview and his extraordinary references around baseball.

From the date of that interview on October 28 until the hiring of Ausmus on November 3, the tension in the Tigers offices was at an all-time high. Dombrowski would not relent in his firm desire to hire Ausmus, and Ilitch remained steadfast in his desire for a more experienced manager at the helm. With the clock ticking on many of the team’s marquee players, the organization shared a sense of urgency in getting the hire right.

Ilitch was so distraught with Dombrowski’s “Ausmus or bust” stance that he reached out personally to Leyland mere days before Ausmus was hired in an effort to convince the former skipper to return for one last go at the elusive title. When Leyland politely affirmed his desire to stay retired, Ilitch finally relented. Dombrowski was begrudgingly given the “OK” to hire Ausmus. It was made clear that Ilitch did not agree with the move and if the new manager was a bust, Dombrowski would be held accountable. Our source described it as an “informal ultimatum”.

When the 2014 season ended with a sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles in the ALDS, Ilitch largely blamed Ausmus (and by extension, Dombrowski) for the postseason flop. The owner believed the 2014 team was the organization’s last best chance at finally winning a World Series, and handing the team to a rookie manager was the precise mistake he had thought it was the previous November.

There was significant consideration given to firing Ausmus after his debut season, but again Dombrowski went to bat for the young skipper. Our source heard from multiple people that son Christopher Ilitch, President & CEO of Ilitch Holdings, Inc, had also voiced his support of retaining Ausmus for at least the 2015 season. Once again, Mike Ilitch relented.

The 2015 season quickly morphed into an even greater failure than the preceding year. Frustrated and impatient, Ilitch first pitched the idea of firing Ausmus during the All-Star break in a last ditch effort to turn the season around. Dombrowski strongly opposed the move, reassuring his boss that the season was still young and he was confident this group would go on a run soon.

When that expected “run” never occurred, Dombrowski’s fate was sealed. There were already concerns regarding the cost of the potential extension and the overall failure of the organization to win the ultimate prize. But it was the Ausmus hire, and Dombrowski’s continued defense of him into this season, that clinched the end of an era at Comerica Park. Ilitch found the reality of “selling” at the deadline too much to take just weeks after being told Ausmus would oversee a righting of the ship.

Ilitch understood that no manager would be winning big with this personnel, another reason to move on from Dombrowski. 2014, however, is viewed as an Ausmus failure by team ownership. And there was a strong belief that while the team was inherently flawed, Ausmus was not the right manager to squeeze the absolute most out of the group in place.

Our source strongly disputed the theory that Dombrowski went behind Ilitch’s back and discussed an executive position with another organization. Ilitch has been very open with his closest confidants regarding the firing, and this has not once been mentioned as a reason. Dombrowski had made references to what his market might be, but the team never suspected him of back channel communicating with rival organizations.

The firing of Dombrowski was characterized as “residual disgust” from Ilitch’s disappointment in 2014, more than it was about 2015’s failure. Dombrowski’s unfulfilled reassurance of the team getting hot in July was simply the final nail in the coffin.

We were told the organization, Ilitch included, is fond of Ausmus as a person. When the white flag was waved at the trade deadline, it was decided to keep Ausmus on out of respect for him. The season was already viewed as lost, and ownership wanted to spare Ausmus the embarrassment of a mid-season firing.

Ausmus’s chances of returning in 2016 are “literally zero”, with ownership desiring a more experienced manager to run the team moving forward. Fair or not, there is a perception with management (including new President Al Avila) that the players like but do not respect Ausmus.

Our source has not heard a single name mentioned to replace Ausmus next season, but said he would be “shocked” if the manager does not have some wear on his tires. Ilitch’s sole reason for opposing the Ausmus hire was his inexperience, and it is doubtful he will again sign off on a rookie manager.

With Ilitch’s desire for an experienced skipper and new team boss Al Avila’s affinity for advanced metrics, the only candidate who might please all parties is DSR favorite Manny Acta. There are simply no other experienced and out of work SABR-friendly managers. I would install former Twins manager Ron Gardenhire as the early favorite for the job, however.

Whatever the future holds, it is clear the Brad Ausmus era is coming to a close. I wish I had known the decision had already been made before I staged a one-man protest at Wrigley Field that led to me being assaulted by an anti-math knuckle-dragger, but what can you do?

After all these years, Dombrowski’s reign died on the Brad Ausmus hill. What a strange ending to a fascinating period of Tigers baseball.