By Justin Spiro
DetroitSportsRag@GMail.com
March 18, 2016

As the 2016 Detroit Tigers season fast approaches, the awkwardness and acrimony of 2015 has not entirely dissipated.

The DSR reported the details of Team President & GM Dave Dombrowski’s departure last August. That report included details of Mike Ilitch’s decision to fire Brad Ausmus at the conclusion of the season.

A few weeks later, the Detroit Free Press and WDIV “broke” the same story. Ausmus was out, and Ron Gardenhire was the most likely candidate to replace him. The DSR has since confirmed that our source had no contact with either of those outlets, further indication that Ausmus’s impending exit was an understood reality among the Tigers hierarchy.

The Freep, for all of its flaws, is generally hesitant to report anything that is not iron clad. Joe Rexrode, for example, knows why MSU star Max Bullough was suspended for the 2014 Rose Bowl. His editors never touched the story, citing a lack of dependable sourcing.

George Sipple’s source for his Freep report echoed our original reporting. Sipple and WDIV’s Bernie Smilovitz were late to the party, but their information was correct as we understood it weeks before.

So what changed?

Ausmus owes his continued employment in Detroit to a phone conversation between Mike Ilitch and then Assistant GM Al Avila on August 2. Ilitch had already determined Ausmus and Dombrowski were out, and on that date offered Avila a contract to replace his mentor. But Avila was not charmed enough to accept the deal without certain caveats.

Chief among Avila’s concerns was the organization’s stone age mentality when it came to advanced analytics. He expressed respect for Dombrowski but spoke candidly of his superior’s blind spot. Avila told his owner in that phone call that he would only accept the top job if ownership embraced a reorganization of the front office both in names and in principles.

It was an easy sell, Avila hawking the panacea for the Tigers’ inability to finish the job and bring Ilitch a title. The owner had spent the money in free agency and the GM had been strong in the trade market. It was time to join the 21^st Century in refocusing the team’s scouting department. Ilitch agreed to let Avila shape the organization as he saw fit while continuing to write big checks for premium talent.

Avila was well aware of Ilitch’s resistance to hiring Brad Ausmus in the first place, and the tension between the owner and Dombrowski (particularly regarding Ausmus) was so bad at the end that even low-rung members of the organization felt uncomfortable in the building. Avila himself found Ausmus unconvincing as the dugout boss, particularly for an expensive and veteran laden team.

The end result seemed inevitable. Our source said last August that there was “literally zero chance” Ausmus would return in 2016, as Ilitch had told his family and closest confidants the decision had been made. The owner wanted an experienced, gritty manager capable of commanding a level of respect in the clubhouse never granted to Ausmus.

Mike Ilitch wanted Ron Gardenhire.

The Tigers quietly reached out to Gardenhire in early September to gauge his interest in the job. Their interest was reciprocated and general terms were already being discussed within days, Gardenhire seeking a 5-year deal and the Tigers eventually countering with a 4-year pact. No formal contract offer was ever submitted, but the parameters were generally in place and agreed upon by both parties. Our source told us that while pursuing Gardenhire was an Ilitch production, Avila never stood against the move and was on board.

Initially.

Subsequent conversations with Gardenhire indicated the former Twins manager – never a fan of advanced metrics in Minnesota – had no interest in embracing the analytical movement in Detroit either. Gardenhire did not mind an analytically driven construction of the roster, but he would manage the team as he saw fit.

Avila called his owner.

“Al (Avila) suddenly saw major issues in hiring Gardenhire,” a team source said. “It just did not sit right with him, beginning a relationship with such a disconnect philosophically.” 

Avila stressed to Ilitch that Gardenhire was not compatible with the new direction of the Detroit Tigers. He had sold his owner in early August on the idea that advanced analytics had been the missing ingredient. Hiring the old-school Gardenhire simply did not fit the model.

“I would say (Ilitch) is as honorable and loyal as they come,” the source said. “He had told Al he could reshape the team as he saw fit, so that was that.”

Ausmus was spared, and a stunned Gardenhire was informed he would not be managing in Detroit after all.

While Ausmus is far from a Manny Acta-level of SABR friendliness, he is far more open on this front than Gardenhire. Avila viewed Ausmus as malleable and evolving, publicly stating on several occasions that his skipper “certainly has made mistakes” but is learning quickly. Gardenhire would undergo no such philosophical transformation.

Darren Wolfson of KSTP in Minneapolis, well-connected to Gardenhire’s camp, Tweeted about the former manager’s failure to land in Detroit.

Someone close to Gardy on him not landing w/ the Tigers: “Just when you think you got it figured out, it always surprises you.” #mntwins

— Darren Wolfson (@DWolfsonKSTP) September 28, 2015

That was the nice way of stating the truth: Ron Gardenhire was fuming.

Despite Ilitch’s relenting on Ausmus, the skipper was not extended through 2017. As such, he will be a lame duck manager entering this season. Although no edict has been made to Ausmus directly, it is understood amongst front office members that he needs a good start to the 2016 campaign. Ilitch has told family that he is out of patience.

“If we sputter out to an 8-14 record or something of the sort, I don’t see how (Ausmus) survives,” the team source said. “He is certainly on the shortest of leashes.”

Who would replace Ausmus if the Tigers struggle early?

Gardenhire remains a favorite of ownership, but that relationship was damaged last September.

“The boss (Ilitch) would still want Gardenhire, and if he still wanted to come here, Gardy is the guy,” the source said.

The Tigers hope a successful 2016 season will make the attempted crossing of that charred bridge an unnecessary inconvenience.