By Justin Spiro
spirojus@msu.edu
February 3, 2015
It is the most wonderful time of the DSR Year! The Worst Detroit Media Personality Bracket has been released and the tournament is beginning. As the DSR’s resident bracketologist, I have taken it upon myself to deeply examine the field. I will now provide the greatest and worst value picks and my overall feelings on who will make it to Lafayette Coney Island for the “Fucked Up Four.”
Let’s get this thing started!
The Favorite
We should get this out of the way right now. The prohibitive favorite in this tournament is #1 overall seed Lynn Henning. The 97-year-old Henning opens as a 3 to 5 favorite to claim the prestigious trophy, meaning you must risk $100 to win $60. In a field this jam-packed with absolute filth, those truly are prohibitive odds.
Henning is the rightful favorite, and would certainly be a worthy heir to Terry Foster’s “throne”. But there is no way I am making a 3 to 5 bet in THIS tournament with THIS field. There is just no value there.
And for the record, I have made an even money “The Field vs. Lynn Henning” bet with DSR Boss Joff Moss. The Dort’s Editor-in-Chief is convinced Henning cannot be beaten.
I am not so sure.
The Defending Champion
Terry Foster landed a 4-seed in the tournament, a fact that was so shocking to a handful of DSR members that they spent two hours bashing the decision.
But when you really look at the field, there are good arguments for all of the 1-3 seeds being placed ahead of Foster.
Foster’s placement in Henning’s region is likely to be devastating to his chances for a repeat. The DSR Sportsbook has Foster going off at 12-1, a very good value. This might be fool’s gold, however, with the Henning juggernaut on the warpath.
Don’t completely count out the defending champion, however. An upset over Henning IS possible, and I like Foster’s chances to reach the Fucked Up Four if that upset occurs.
Could Foster possibly take down the #1 overall seed? One must keep in mind that while MANY people hate Terry Foster, only Jeff Moss doesn’t like Lynn Henning.
I smell upset.
The Worst Values
One of the worst values on the board is Vincent Goodwill, the outgoing Joe Dumars apologist and former pupil of incumbent champion Terry Foster.
The DSR Sportsbook is offering the public 15 to 1 odds on Goodwill winning this thing, and while tempting, I must advise you to steer clear of a wager on this hack.
Goodwill would lose to either Terry Foster or Lynn Henning. And if you don’t escape your own region, you can’t escape with the trophy. Goodwill deserves a 2-seed, but we are handicapping the public here, and the heat is not high enough on this shill.
The absolute worst value on the board is the 1-seeded Mitch Albom. The odds on the elf winning are currently 12 to 1. I would not entertain a bet on Albom at anything less than 15-1. While the résumé is impressive, he is not winning this thing.
The Best Values
The aforementioned Terry Foster (12-1) is one of my favorite picks on the board, but there are other options available to value seekers.
The 3-seed of the You Should Know Better Better Region is THE BEST BET ON THE BOARD. At 10-1, Drew Sharp is a tremendous value. He is a lock to go far, and a great bet to win the whole thing. Place your largest wager on Drew Sharp to win at 10-1.
Typically you do not see much value in the higher seeds, but the 2-seeded Scott Anderson is going off at 20-1. You’re telling me you are not tempted to wager $50, the price of a Sea World ticket, on Detroit’s Shamu?
Anderson’s takes are as bad as anyone’s (i.e., mocking sabermetrics, defending the home team at all costs), but his awful attitude does not get enough run on the DSR farm. This is a guy who hangs up on callers who suggest batting average is overrated. Nothing like being condescending from the first rung of the ladder.
At least many awful members of the media are nice enough as people. Dan Leach, Jeff Riger, Dennis Fithian, Michael Stone, etc. All of those guys are bad at their jobs, but they are very cordial and friendly, even with their harshest critics.
Scott Anderson has all of the bad takes with none of the humility. The documentary Blackfish featured an asshole orca whale that the idiot public would inexplicably congregate around and applaud. The film could have been about Anderson’s career.
Toss a few clams on The Whale at 20-1.
The Awful Value Who Should Be A Great Value
Dan Miller is going off at 75-1, a seemingly ridiculous number for a 2-seed, but reasonable when you consider the public will never award Miller the “top prize”.
If Moss and I were the only two voting, Miller would be going off at 10-1.
No seeding within this tournament received more scrutiny than Miller’s 2-seed. I had to throw the enormous weight of my influential support behind Moss on this decision. Let’s be clear, there are MANY members of the media who are FAR WORSE in a vacuum. But you have to take each member’s role in town under strong consideration.
Is Matt Dery (a 5-seed) really “better” than Miller (a 2-seed)? Uhhhh, no.
But Miller has a television show with a large audience. And rather than elevating the discourse with intelligent guest hosts, he consistently invites a parade of FAVORITES TO WIN THIS TOURNAMENT!!!
Miller himself is not garbage. But he DOES place an oscillating fan in front of the city landfill and turns it up to max speed.
To whom much is given, much is expected. And Miller disappoints time and time again.
I wouldn’t mind if Miller won the whole thing. It is not Foster’s fault he is stupid. Miller is not dumb. He should know better.
Final Prediction
This is my prediction of what will happen, not what I think should happen. The public and I disagree on some of these guys. With that disclaimer out of the way, who will reach Lafayette Coney Island for the Fucked Up Four festivities?
The Eric Pate Region is the tournament’s weakest, but I see the 2-seeded Drew Lane advancing. He is the worst value to his own employer, cashing large paychecks in exchange for lazy work that has failed to move the needle in town. Lane is a real knuckle dragger, and a big reason why our long desired alternative to 97.1 has failed miserably. The public will choose Lane out of the Pate Region.
The Meat Shop Region presents a stronger field. I am going with another 2-seed. Scott Anderson needs to represent at Lafayette Coney Island for the Fucked Up Four. We all think Chris McCosky is awful, but Anderson has the bigger voice (and everything else) in town. I believe when the public really digs into the issues, they will decide Anderson cannot be (gastric) bypassed.
The lethal ™ (Sima Birach, Jr’s legal team) Jon Paul Morosi Region includes both the defending champion (Foster) and the #1 overall seed (Henning). Vincent Goodwill and Pat Caputo are nothing to thumb your nose at either. While I will be wagering on the underdog Foster to repeat, I believe the public will ultimately vote Henning to his 3rd consecutive Fucked Up Four.
The You Should Know Better Regional features the weakest 1-seed AND the weakest 2-seed in Bob Wojnowski and Dan Miller, respectively. Which brings us to the 3-seed Drew Sharp, who I believe will shoot past his competition and into the Fucked Up Four. Be prepared for Sharp to shock the world with the dominance he will show during the Regionals. He will win each of his matchups handily.
There you have it. Drew Lane vs. Scott Anderson out West, Lynn Henning vs. Drew Sharp back East. What a massive pile of crap.
I will be writing a separate Fucked Up Four preview when we get that far, but for the record, I am throwing my support behind Scott Anderson to win the whole thing.
Wynn Las Vegas Odds
| Henning, Lynn | 3 to 5 |
| Sharp, Drew | 10 to 1 |
| Albom, Mitch | 12 to 1 |
| Foster, Terry | 12 to 1 |
| Goodwill, Vincent | 15 to 1 |
| McCosky, Chris | 15 to 1 |
| Lane, Drew | 20 to 1 |
| Anderson, Scott | 20 to 1 |
| Caputo, Pat | 20 to 1 |
| Allen, Rod | 25 to 1 |
| Fenech, Anthony | 25 to 1 |
| Dery, Matt | 30 to 1 |
| Ermanni, Ryan | 30 to 1 |
| Twentyman, Tim | 35 to 1 |
| Mowery, Matthew B. | 40 to 1 |
| Mensching, Kurt | 45 to 1 |
| Mazawey, Tom | 45 to 1 |
| Samuelsen, Jamie | 45 to 1 |
| Wojnowski, Bob | 50 to 1 |
| Leach, Dan | 60 to 1 |
| Seidel, Jeff | 60 to 1 |
| Miller, Dan | 75 to 1 |
| Parker, Rob | 75 to 1 |
| Hammond, Jennifer | 80 to 1 |
| Ellis, Vince | 85 to 1 |
| Snyder, Mark | 90 to 1 |
| Impemba, Mario | 100 to 1 |
| Karsch, Doug | 125 to 1 |
| Fellhauer, Marc | 125 to 1 |
| St. James, Helene | 150 to 1 |
| Cleaves, Mateen | 150 to 1 |
| Iott, Chris | 150 to 1 |
| McAllister, Bill | 150 to 1 |
| Windsor, Shawn | 200 to 1 |
| Price, Jim | 200 to 1 |
| Shepard, Matt | 200 to 1 |
| Beck, Jason | 225 to 1 |
| Thomas, Eric | 250 to 1 |
| Valenti, Mike | 250 to 1 |
| Gage, Tom | 350 to 1 |
| Stone, Michael | 400 to 1 |
| Redmond, Mickey | 500 to 1 |
| Riger, Jeff | 500 to 1 |
| Keating, John | 750 to 1 |
| Webb, Sam | 1,000 to 1 |
| Schmehl, James | 1,500 to 1 |
| Fithian, Dennis | 2,000 to 1 |
| O’Hara, Mike | 2,000 to 1 |
| Kulfan, Ted | 2,500 to 1 |
| Mahorn, Rick | 3,000 to 1 |
| Pasche, Paula | 3,500 to 1 |
| Green, Jerry | 3,500 to 1 |
| Smilovitz, Bernie | 4,000 to 1 |
| Chengelis, Angelique | 5,000 to 1 |
| York, Mickey | 5,000 to 1 |
| Beard, Rico | 5,000 to 1 |
| Monroe, Craig | 5,000 to 1 |
| Thompson, Trevor | 6,969 to 1 |
| Rose, Justin | 10,000 to 1 |
| Brandstatter, Jim | 10,000 to 1 |
| Khan, Ansar | 10,000 to 1 |
| Ortiz, Tony | 10,000 to 1 |
| Chapman, Brian | 25,000 to 1 |
| Wooley, Ryan | 30,000 to 1 |
Good luck, my friends!