By Jeff Moss
May 3, 2012
DetroitSportsRag@gmail.com 

As many of you already know, I have been a degenerate horseplayer since I was six-years old when I first started reading my grandfather’s Daily Racing Form.  And while I am not a religious person at all, my two High Holidays are the Kentucky Derby Day and the Breeders’ Cup.

And this Saturday at Churchill Downs, my Yom Kipper of gambling takes place in Louisville, Kentucky when 20 three-year old thoroughbreds will line up in the starting gate for the 138th renewal of the “Run for the Roses.”

I don’t want to say that I take Derby Week seriously, but I once told my sister that I wouldn’t show up for her wedding if her nuptials took place on the first Saturday of May.  (She got married a week earlier.  No joke.)

Hell, I have only taken one vacation in my LIFE that didn’t involve betting on horses and even then I pouted like an infant when Gregg and Tami Schultz wouldn’t let me go to Woodbine in Toronto for an afternoon. Poor Them.

So, to say the least, I take this stuff seriously.  As a matter of fact, for a short time I was the Triple Crown “expert” on WDFN’s “Stoney and Wojo” program.  Using the alias, “The Horse’s Ass”, I am pretty sure I never picked a winner while being jinxed by those “coolers” at Cheap Channel.

Actually, the FIRST Triple Crown race AFTER I no longer appeared on 1130, I gave out the stone-cold Belmont Stakes exacta on the DSR when Empire Maker defeated Ten Most Wanted.  I don’t want to pat myself on the back for that hit, but Gregg’s “guy” is still licking his wounds from being dumb enough to offer TRACK-ODDS with no wagering limit to this group of degenerates.

Anyway, I have had a lot of requests on Twitter for my Derby picks this year so I figured I would do so in a column.

(And yes, That Choco Shake Kid with Heath Bar, I know I am getting a “Bad.”)

1)  Daddy Long Legs (30 to 1) — I actually would have considered using this Irish invader on my backup tickets until he drew the rail during Wednesday’s post-position draw.  Couple the impossible task of winning the Derby from the one-hole with his abomination of a performance last fall at Churchill Downs in his one dirt start of his life and this son of Scat Daddy is an instant toss.   Also, I don’t like spiders. NOT USING WITH MONOPOLY MONEY

2)  Optimizer (50 to 1) — This horse is bred top and bottom for the turf which would be great if the Derby was run on the grass, but it isn’t.  The son of English Channel comes from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lucas who at one time was the best conditioner on the planet.  At this stage of his career though he enters horses like this who are way out of their element.   The dude has kind of become an embarrassment.  Think of Willie Mays in a Mets uniform and that best explains the current day Mr. Lukas. NOT USING WITH COUNTERFEIT

3) Take Charge Indy (15 to 1) -– Arguably the best bred horse in this field who was the winner of the Florida Derby in March after he was allowed to steal the race with slow, Prince Fielder-esque fractions.   There is no shot he will get that favorable pace scenario on Saturday and will have to come a bit off the pace to give jockey Calvin Borel his FOURTH Kentucky Derby win.  I do like this colt a little, but his odds will be undervalued with Calvin on his back.  The idiot, one-time a year, amateur gamblers ALWAYS pound the windows on Borel’s mount and this year will be no different.  Last year he was on a horse that might have only had three legs and yet the nag was bet down to 11 to 1.  I think he is still running. BACKUP TICKETS ONLY WHILE GRITTING MY TEETH

4)  Union Rags (9 to 2) –- The winter-book favorite for the Derby is coming off a third place finish in the Florida Derby which has caused some punter’s to get off his bandwagon.  (I love using British horse racing lingo.  It reminds of me the movie, “Snatch.”) Trained by Michael Matz (who won this race in 2006 with the ill-fated Barbaro), this $350,000 purchase looks like is sitting on the race of his life.  After winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes in February, he received an awful trip in the Florida Derby when the rider of El Padrino (Javier Castellano) purposely kept him boxed in for most of the race.   Jockey Julien Leparoux will need a much better trip than last time, but it appears Matz has him primed for a career effort.  USING ON ALL TICKETS  

5)  Dullahan (6 to 1) -– A half-brother to 2009 Derby winner Mine That Bird and this year’s Blue Grass Stakes victor is getting a lot of attention as a possible off-the-pace threat.  I can’t take a relatively short price on a horse who has yet to show any affinity for the Churchill Downs dirt in three career races.  And I am still pissed at Mine That Bird for ruining my 2009 Derby week.  Well, that and my wife’s ectopic pregnancy which postponed our wedding in Vegas until the Belmont Stakes. NOT USING OUT OF SPITE

6)  Bodemeister (4 to 1)  — This lightly raced morning line favorite from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is easily the fastest and most promising horse in the entire field.  If he wins the Derby I would be SHOCKED if he didn’t become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.  That is how much RAW talent this horse has.  I just don’t think he is going to win the Derby.   If the colt named after Baffert’s young son does take down the Run for the Roses though he will be the first to do it without racing as a two-year since 1882.   Also, his breakout performance in the Arkansas Derby came gate-to-wire and he won’t have that scenario on Saturday with sprinter, Trinniberg, in the race.   Just have a feeling the assured fast pace and/or the lack of seasoning will catch up to him at this mile and a quarter distance.  NOT USING

7)  Rousing Sermon (50 to 1) -– While I like his style of coming from the clouds with the likely hot pace up front, he just has never run a fast enough race to be considered a legitimate threat with the best of his generation.  Also, I am an atheist. NOT USING

8)   Creative Cause (12 to 1) -– Solid two year-old seasoning? Check.  Triple digit Beyer Speed Figure? Check.  Closer? Check.  Likes dirt? Check. Ran well at Churchill Downs already? Check.  Bred for the distance? Check.  Where do I sign up and get my check? USING ON ALL TICKETS

9)  Trinniberg (50 to 1) –- If this race was run at seven furlongs he’d probably be the favorite.  But it isn’t.  This son of Teuflesberg will almost definitely set the pace and will take them as far as he can.  Imagine Usain Bolt in a marathon and that is what this horse is up against.  He shouldn’t have been entered and his only contribution might come in softening up Bodemeister and Hansen for the numerous stretch runners. NOT USING WITH YOUR MONEY

10)  Daddy Nose Best (15 to 1) -– This is my upset special right here.  Trained by Steve Asmussen, this son of Scat Daddy is the most experienced horse in the field with ten races under his belt.  And it looks like he is just getting good at the right time.  This will be his third race off a layoff, which is one of my favorite handicapping angles.  He is a closer that should get a favorable pace scenario and the best finishing jockey in the country, Garrett Gomez, rides him.    His 100 Beyer Speed Figure in his last race at Sunland Park makes him competitive time wise with these and he is definitely going to be a big price.  Bombs.  Away. USING ON ALL TICKETS

11)   Alpha (15 to 1) –- This representative from the barn of the ruler of the U.A.E. has a shot here from off the pace, but I am not thrilled that he missed some preparation time for this race with some minor injuries.  He was steadied in the Wood Memorial which might have cost him the win against Gemologist, but I just have a bad feeling he isn’t going to be 100 percent fit for the most strenuous two-minutes of his life.  Also, my wife made me watch Sex and the City II and part of it took place in Abu Dhabi.  BACKUP TICKETS ONLY

12)  Prospective (30 to 1) -– He will closing late, but has never run a race fast enough to warrant consideration in this Grade I event.  NOT USING ON ANY TICKETS  

13)   Went the Day Well (20 to 1) — Owned by Team Valor.  Trained by Graham Motion.  Ridden by John Velazquez.  Coming off a winter at Gulfstream Park and a victory in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway.  EXACTLY like his stablemate, Animal Kingdom, who won the 2011 renewal of the Kentucky Derby.  And if this horse with the same blueprint is victorious in 2012, my day won’t be going well at all.   Just like last year.  (Why is Microsoft Word’s spellcheck telling me “stablemate” isn’t a word? I guess the nerd who came up with the word processing dictionary wasn’t a degenerate horseplayer.) NOT USING ON ANY TICKETS 

14)  Hansen (10 to 1) –- Owned by Dr. Kendell Hansen, whose grandfather once owned the Detroit Tigers and trained by native Detroiter, Mike Maker, this horse has obvious Michigan connections.  He was also the champion two-year off his win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill.  The main issue with Hansen (the horse) is that he likes to be on the lead and that won’t happen with Trinniberg entered.  Will he get fried along with Bodemeister? Can he handle the 10-furlong distance? This almost completely white speedster has a lot of questions to answer on Saturday.  Which sucks because he can’t talk. USING ON BACKUP TICKETS ONLY

15)  Gemologist (6 to 1) –- This son of the legendary Tiznow is undefeated.  He has already won twice on this track.  He probably will get a nice trip right off the front speed.  AND his trainer Todd Pletcher can do almost no wrong lately.  So why don’t I like him? Probably because I am an idiot derelict. NOT USING ON ANY TICKET (AND I’LL PROBABLY REGRET IT)

16)  El Padrino (20 to 1) -– I have been praying to the Racing God’s for weeks that it would rain on the first Saturday of May since my favorite horse in the race, El Padrino, would move up about five lengths on an off-track.  “The Godfather” has freaked out twice on sealed surfaces and I am still holding out hope for a monsoon in the next 48 hours.   This “other” Pletcher trainee reminds me a lot of the 1995 Derby winner, Thunder Gulch.   El Padrino (like Thunder Gulch) was considered one of the favorites until an off-the-board finish in his last prep race.  I am throwing out that awful Florida Derby performance because his then jockey, Javier Castellano, seemed more intent on causing havoc for Union Rags than winning the race himself.  El Padrino was sired by Pulpit and is out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, which to me is the equivalent of Sergei Fedorov having a child with Samantha (Eponine) Barks.  When Thunder Gulch won the ’95 renewal, I won so much cash on him at 25 to 1 that I went and opened up a new savings account at NBD.  Of course, I think I lost all of that cash by the time the Preakness came around.  Hopefully, I will be smarter if El Padrino wins at a price, but I somehow doubt it. USING ON ALL TICKETS

17)  Done Talking (50 to 1) -– This Illinois Derby winner has got no shot.  Done writing. UNLESS I MAKE A MISTAKE PUNCHING MY TICKET? NO WAY.

18)  Sabercat (30 to 1) -– This son of Bluegrass Cat punched his ticket to the Derby last November at Delta Downs by winning a slot enhanced event in the bush leagues and hasn’t really lifted a hoof since.  (I am aware none of you know what the hell I just wrote.  Let’s move on.) TOTAL THROWOUT

19)  I’ll Have Another (12 to 1) -– This horse has Detroit Tigers connections as well.  And I am not talking about Delmon Young and Miguel Cabrera being a big fan of his name.  His trainer, Doug O’Neill, grew up in Dearborn Heights, and the conditioner cut his teeth at Ladbroke DRC.  He moved out to Southern California years ago, but can be regularly seen covering his balding head with a Tigers hat.  Furthermore, his owner is a Windsor, Ontario native , Paul Reddam, who has frequently named his thoroughbreds after Red Wings players.  And not only has Reddam named colts Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom and Hudler, he even named one MO CHEESE.  It wasn’t surprising when the horse named after the Wings fan with the Stanley Cup on his head ended up being a cheap claimer, but still.  Anyway, this son of Flower Alley is 2-for-2 this year (including take down the prestigious Santa Anita Derby) and has a puncher’s chance from the unfavorable 19-hole. USING ON BACKUP TICKETS ONLY

20)  Liason (50 to 1) – The other Baffert runner hasn’t hit the board in 2012 and isn’t about to on Saturday while starting from the parking lot.  NOT USING ON ANY TICKETS

AE21) My Adonis (50 to 1) – This son of Pleasantly Perfect has no chance IF he gets into the race.  He is an also eligible and will need a scratch by 9am Friday just to have a chance to get embarrassed by double-digit lengths.  WILL BE SCRATCHED BEFORE I CAN’T BET HIM

HORSES I AM USING ON ALL TICKETS  

4) Union Rags 8) Creative Cause 10) Daddy Nose Best 16) El Padrino 

HORSES ON BACKUP TICKETS ONLY

3) Take Charge Indy 11) Alpha 14) Hansen 19) I’ll Have Another